Welcome to a new week that marks the first half of November. This is an important period as we anticipate market fluctuations due to the upcoming U.S. elections and key economic releases, including the BoE decision and the Fed Rate decision.
What implications will this have for traders and investors? How will key assets like gold ($XAUUSD), the US Dollar, and indices such as $NAS100 and $US30 react? You can learn all about this in our upcoming release overview.
🇪🇺 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — November 4, at 11:00 (GMT+2)
The first important release is the European PMI manufacturing index. Market forecasts suggest that the data may remain unchanged, similar to the previous release at 45.9. This means that it is unlikely to have a significant impact on $EURUSD and the $GERMAN30 index.
However, any deviation above or below expectations could trigger high volatility. Remember that this release signifies the health of the manufacturing sector and can provide insights into broader economic conditions in Europe, influencing market sentiment and trading strategies.
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI — November 5, at 17:00 (GMT+2)
The next release is expected from the U.S., which will determine the non-manufacturing PMI for October 2024. This is an important release as it is projected to come in lower than the previous figure of 54.9, with forecasts at 51.6. It's worth noting that a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.
Therefore, traders and investors should exercise caution with open positions on Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and SP500 ($SPX500), as market reactions can be swift in response to this economic indicator.
🇪🇺 S&P Global Composite PMI — November 6, at 11:00 (GMT+2)
Next in the release schedule is the European Composite PMI, which typically impacts the $EURUSD quotes and the German DAX index. However, no surprises are anticipated here either, as the index is expected to remain at the previous level of 49.7. If it comes in lower than expected, it could negatively affect the euro and European equities.
Conversely, a disappointing figure could support safe-haven assets like gold ($XAUUSD) and the US Dollar, as investors may seek refuge in more stable investments during times of economic uncertainty.
🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision — November 7, at 14:00 (GMT+2)
On Thursday, we have two key releases for the week, the first of which is the Bank of England's interest rate decision. It's important to note that this release significantly impacts $GBPUSD as well as the British FTSE index. Last time, the Bank of England kept the rate unchanged at 5%. This time, opinions are divided: the rate may decrease by 0.25 basis points, or it may remain unchanged again. Therefore, traders should exercise caution and remain alert for potential market volatility surrounding this announcement.
🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision — November 7, at 21:00 (GMT+2)
The final key release of the week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Following its last meeting in September, where the Fed lowered interest rates by half a percentage point to a range of 4.75% to 5%, investors are anticipating another quarter-point cut at this meeting.
Market participants will also be closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, where he is expected to discuss the central bank’s economic analysis and outline the Fed's strategy for potential interest rate cuts in the coming quarters. It's worth noting that other Fed officials will be in a blackout period, preventing them from commenting on monetary policy.
That's it for this week! 👋
As this week brims with crucial economic data points, market participants should brace for potential swings and volatility.
