The markets are starting the week relatively quietly – but beneath the surface, several potential catalysts are building up at the same time.
For me, the key issue remains the US dollar. Dollar weakness continues, with EUR/USD trading around 1.1660. The dollar is slightly stronger at the start of the week, but the broader pressure remains. That keeps the focus on what could trigger the next major move.
Jackson Hole – the next volatility catalyst?
The big event comes later this week. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium starts on Thursday, August 27, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak on Friday. The market will be looking for clues about the future path of US monetary policy.
A dovish message could put the dollar under even more pressure and potentially support gold, Bitcoin and other risk assets. A more hawkish tone could quickly reverse those trades. So, Jackson Hole may not necessarily give us a new trend – but it could certainly bring volatility back into the market.
Stocks: Can Nvidia light up the Nasdaq again?
Stocks remain mixed. The big focus is Wednesday, when Nvidia reports earnings after the US market close. The question is simple: Can Nvidia ignite the Nasdaq again – like Microsoft did a few weeks ago?
Technology and AI stocks have been struggling to maintain their momentum. Nvidia therefore needs more than just good numbers. The market will focus heavily on guidance, AI demand and the outlook for future growth. With expectations already high, even a strong quarter may not be enough, but a strong outlook from Nvidia could provide a major boost to the entire technology sector.
Gold: Dollar weakness remains the tailwind
Gold continues to look strong. XAU/USD has broken above the 50-week moving average around USD 4,460. The weaker dollar is clearly helping the move higher.
Gold is increasingly benefiting from the same broader forces supporting Bitcoin: concerns around currencies, fiscal policy and confidence in traditional financial assets.
The key question now is whether this is simply another gold rally – or part of a much larger repricing.
Bitcoin: Short squeeze or real breakout?
Crypto has delivered some of the most impressive moves of the week. Bitcoin has surged higher, with a significant part of the move driven by a short squeeze. That makes the rally harder to interpret. A short squeeze can create spectacular price action without necessarily creating a sustainable new trend, but the move still matters.
Bitcoin has reclaimed important technical levels, while Ethereum has shown even stronger momentum. One interesting pattern: several previous Ethereum moves featuring similarly large bullish candles were followed by further upside. That does not guarantee another rally – but it is certainly something worth watching.
The bigger question for Bitcoin is whether the current move attracts new buyers or whether selling pressure returns once the short squeeze is over.
Oil: Technical picture improving, geopolitics still dominant
Oil remains mixed, but the chart has improved. The bigger driver, however, remains geopolitics – particularly the war with Iran and the potential impact on supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Any further escalation could quickly push oil higher.
On the other hand, even credible signs of de-escalation could take a lot of risk premium back out of the price.
Yen: How much longer can the pressure continue?
The Japanese yen remains weak across the board. USD/JPY is again approaching levels where intervention risk becomes increasingly important. Japan has already shown that it is willing to intervene when yen weakness becomes excessive. The problem is that intervention can slow the move – but it does not necessarily remove the underlying reasons for yen weakness. So for me, the question is: How much further can the yen fall before Tokyo steps in again?
My market view for this week
We currently have an interesting combination:
USD weak.
Gold strong.
Crypto exploding higher.
Stocks waiting for Nvidia.
Oil driven by geopolitics.
And Jackson Hole coming up.
That means this could become a much more volatile week than the quiet start suggests.
For me, three charts are particularly important:
EUR/USD: Does dollar weakness continue?
Nasdaq/Nvidia: Can AI lead the next stock-market move?
Bitcoin/Ethereum: Was the latest rally just a short squeeze – or the start of another bullish phase?
Jackson Hole could provide the first major answers.
The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, a personalized recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to engage in any investment activity.
